How do two individuals publicly declare their commitment to one another, promising to stand by each other in both health and sickness? This question becomes even more intriguing when considering the spectacle of televised weddings.

My mother called me into the living room to witness the union of Prince William and Princess Catherine. The sun shone brightly, perhaps wanting to partake in this globally broadcast celebration.

Reflecting on it now, my mother has always been a wedding enthusiast. I doubt she'd ever decline an invitation to a wedding.

During our time in Kayole, the Divine Word Parish (DIWOPA) served as a gathering place for many. There was a field right outside the church where we played football, while my siblings engaged in basketball nearby.

We often visited on Saturday afternoons, hoping to catch wedding receptions held at the same venue. It was probably at these gatherings that I first tasted pilau.

We would boldly help ourselves to the food, unashamed of our attire, even if we were dressed inappropriately. We’d finish our plates without asking for seconds, though we wouldn’t refuse if offered.

Weddings signify joyful occasions. Two individuals commit to loving one another before witnesses, symbolized by a ring that serves as a constant reminder of their vows.

One of the most unforgettable moments in a couple's life is often the recitation of their vows.

Let’s delve deeper into their significance.

A twist can elevate a story, as I learned in primary school. Teachers preferred drama over happily-ever-after endings. I can't recall any wedding tale that ended blissfully; there was always a long-lost lover barging into the ceremony, causing chaos.

These narratives often bore titles like A Wedding Gone Sour.

Such disruptions typically unfolded after the couple exchanged their vows, casting doubt on the existence of true love.

Love has a way of blinding individuals. It obscures one partner's faults and clouds the judgment of those invited to the ceremony, masking the challenges inherent in wedding vows.

Let’s review the traditional promises we frequently encounter:

I, Eve, take you, Adam, to be my husband: 1. To have 2. And to hold from this day forward 3. For better 4. For worse 5. For richer 6. For poorer 7. In sickness 8. And in health 9. To love 10. And to cherish 11. Until death do us part

These eleven commitments represent potential triumphs and tribulations.

There will be instances when you long for your partner's presence, yet they might not be there. You’ll face hardships together, and enjoy good times independently. Thus, these promises may not always be upheld.

Let’s assign a probability to each promise, assuming they all have equal chances of being honored.

To simplify, let’s say each vow has a probability of ½.

According to probability laws, when combining probabilities using 'and,' you multiply them. By breaking down the vows into their individual components, we can apply this mathematical principle.

Eleven possibilities exist.

Therefore, the probability of fulfilling all vows is ½ multiplied eleven times, equating to 1/2048.

Sticking to the traditional promises made during marriage, it becomes evident that there’s only a 1/2048 chance of honoring all these commitments.

That’s a minuscule figure.

This probability can be described as improbable.

What does improbable entail?

The sun rises each summer morning with high certainty — I know this only because my mother took me to school — meaning you'll likely see the sun tomorrow.

When we proclaim these vows, we’re making promises to one another, yet this analysis reveals their improbability.

Humans uniquely engage in wedding ceremonies; other animals do not partake in such elaborate rituals.

In front of an audience, you pledge to an uncertain outcome, unbeknownst to the priest, the couple, or the guests. All of them celebrate, oblivious to the reality.

Now that you’ve read this, you are aware — or at least will be once you finish.

So, why do two individuals commit to such uncertain promises?

They likely don't realize the improbability of their vows.

Let's refer to these commitments as improbable promises.

Rephrasing the question yields: Why do two people engage in improbable commitments?

Before exploring potential meanings, it's worth examining the structure of a scientific theory, which shares similarities with wedding vows.

The power of a strong theory lies in its ability to explain a multitude of previously puzzling phenomena. For instance, Lynn Margulis’ theory shed light on the origins of mitochondria, a concept that had eluded scientists until her defense of it.

In a realm of 100 potential explanations, Margulis’ theory stands as one among many — 1/100.

The other theories account for the remaining 99/100.

In essence, Margulis’ theory is improbable.

However, if a theory consists of multiple components, it introduces an additional layer of improbability. If it requires various steps to reach a conclusion, it implies that each component carries the potential for failure.

This adds yet another layer of improbability.

Nonetheless, a multifaceted theory encompasses diverse pieces of information. For wedding vows, the theory could symbolize the wedding ring, containing the facets of promises each partner makes to the other.

Assuming the theory succeeds through various tests, each testing a different aspect, we gain deeper insights into the theory itself. The more successful the tests, the more we understand, revealing the initial improbability of the theory.

Ultimately, the more improbable a theory is, due to its known and unknown components, the greater its explanatory power.

Wedding vows are improbable because of the diverse promises made — 11 as a baseline. Life's challenges serve as the tests. Enduring these trials showcases the rarity of a couple's bond.

In light of these observations, what can we deduce?

Divorce rates serve as a clear indicator of the success of wedding vows.

These rates vary widely, influenced by factors such as country, religion, marriage types, historical periods, and age groups, ranging from about 50% to as low as 10%. This broad spectrum complicates our understanding.

We can only discern trends without clear explanations for their causes.

However, considering the points raised, we can draw some conclusions regarding the endurance of marriage vows. A 50% divorce rate suggests that 50% of marriages succeed.

Some couples may have experienced the loss of a spouse or separation.

It's still uncertain.

What we can infer is that vows have proven effective in roughly 50% of cases. These figures, while sobering, remind us that marriages don't always conclude like fairy tales.

For those that do last, they demonstrate that vows possess significant explanatory power. These couples have navigated years of challenges, remaining resilient despite the odds.

Arguably, it is this improbability that contributes to their survival. It’s hard to dismiss this possibility.

In essence, wedding vows represent a powerful testament to the unique connection between two people.

The more improbable the commitment, the greater the potential for understanding the dynamics of both successful and failed marriages.

Today, let’s focus on the positive. In a world with billions of individuals, countless couples have maintained their unions despite the passage of time, historical changes, and various challenges.

Social media often portrays a different narrative, highlighting infidelity and divorce. Yet, a vast number of thriving relationships remain unnoticed.

When someone invests in a formal agreement to unite with another, something profound is undoubtedly taking shape.

Making a promise as significant as a vow is indeed a daunting task.

However, when you take that step, endeavor to uphold that improbable vow, for the more it endures, the stronger the bond may become.

The only way to discover this is to try. At least twice.

And play your part.

Wishing you a wonderful Valentine's Day.

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