A New Era of Lunar Exploration: Who Will Reach the Moon Next?
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The Race to the Moon
The quest to land humans on the Moon has ignited a competitive spirit among nations and private enterprises. Who will be the first to achieve this feat once more?
Fifty years ago, Apollo 11 made history by landing the first humans on the Moon, marking what was described as "one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." NASA successfully landed astronauts on the lunar surface six times between 1969 and 1972, but no one has replicated this monumental achievement since. However, the landscape is shifting, and we may soon witness a return to our celestial neighbor.
The initial drive for lunar exploration stemmed from the Cold War, as the United States and the Soviet Union vied for supremacy in space. Today, the motivations for returning to the Moon have evolved significantly. We now know that the Moon harbors water and abundant supplies of helium-3, a non-radioactive isotope that has the potential to provide safe nuclear energy.
"Unlike Earth, protected by its magnetic field, the Moon has been exposed to significant amounts of Helium-3 from the solar wind. This isotope could be a game-changer for safer nuclear energy in fusion reactors," explains the European Space Agency (ESA).
As humanity ventures deeper into the Solar System, the Moon could serve as a vital waypoint, offering resources like water that are crucial for sustaining life in the unforgiving environment of space.
Numerous countries and private enterprises are crafting their own ambitions to send astronauts back to the Moon. Each has its own strengths and hurdles in this exciting endeavor.
SpaceX: A Bold Challenger
If Elon Musk can launch a Tesla Roadster into outer space, what’s to stop him from sending humans to the Moon? While there are numerous challenges, Musk embraces risks in his quest for space exploration.
In September 2018, billionaire fashion mogul Yusaku Maezawa announced plans to orbit the Moon on a SpaceX rocket. If successful, he would become the first space tourist to fly around our natural satellite, though he won’t land. This journey parallels NASA's Apollo 8 mission from 1968, with SpaceX’s mission set for 2023, 55 years later.
Their Starhopper launch vehicle, aimed at lunar travel, will combine a Super Heavy booster with a second stage called Starship. Once in space, Starship will refuel before commencing its journey to the Moon or Mars.
SpaceX's greatest asset is Musk's willingness to take risks, although this same trait can be a double-edged sword. The journey to the Moon is fraught with uncertainty, but Musk thrives in high-stakes situations. Despite setbacks, such as the Falcon 9 launch explosions in 2016, SpaceX has shown resilience.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 35%
China: A Rapid Contender
In 2003, China became the third nation to send humans into space, following the U.S. and Russia. Their lunar program has made remarkable strides, including landing the Chang'e 4 lander on the Moon's far side in early 2019.
The Chinese space agency executed 39 orbital launches in 2018, the most of any nation. The Chang'e 5 mission aims to return lunar samples to Earth, while Chang'e 6 will gather additional lunar materials. Future missions may even establish long-term bases on the Moon using advanced 3D printing technologies.
"Chang'e-8 will continue the work of Chang'e-7, potentially establishing a robotic research base at the Moon's south pole," notes Andrew Jones for The Planetary Society.
Experts suggest that China could send astronauts to the Moon by the 2030s, leveraging their long-term political will, a unique advantage over other nations.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 30%
NASA: The Experienced Pioneer
NASA remains the only agency to have successfully put humans on the Moon, giving it a distinct edge in experience. However, NASA has not ventured beyond low-Earth orbit since the 1970s, focusing instead on projects like the International Space Station.
With a new directive to land humans on the Moon by 2024, NASA is reigniting its lunar ambitions. However, the agency faces significant safety challenges and bureaucratic hurdles that could complicate their timeline.
The Space Launch System (SLS) will transport the Orion capsule and other components into space, creating a pathway for lunar landings. The Deep Space Gateway will facilitate travel to the Moon, allowing astronauts to launch from a lunar orbit to the surface and back.
The potential for cost overruns remains a concern, but fixed-price contracts for the Lunar Gateway may mitigate financial risks. NASA's vast experience and resources position it well, though political and financial challenges persist.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 25%
Russia: A Legacy of Challenges
Once a formidable competitor in the space race, Russia has faced financial struggles in recent decades. The Soviet Union was the first to achieve numerous space milestones, but the nation has since lagged in lunar exploration.
In 2019, Russia launched the SIRIUS experiment, simulating a long-term lunar mission with six volunteers for 120 days. Plans for a lunar base by the 2030s remain on the table, utilizing the Angara rocket system, but progress has been slow.
Despite its historical achievements, Russia’s current lunar ambitions appear to be faltering.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 5%
India: The Dark Horse
India has yet to conduct a crewed space mission, yet it holds considerable potential in the lunar race. The Chandrayaan-1 orbiter, launched in 2008, discovered water on the Moon, and the upcoming Chandrayaan-2 aims to explore the lunar south pole.
"This mission represents several technological milestones for India's space agency," reports The Planetary Society. However, delays in launching Chandrayaan-2 have set back India's lunar ambitions.
While India currently focuses on robotic missions, its significant talent pool and technological advancements could position it as a serious contender in the future.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT ON THE MOON: 4%
The Element of Surprise
There is always a possibility that another nation or organization could emerge as an unexpected contender in the lunar race. Whether it's Japan, the European Union, or an adventurous billionaire, new entrants could disrupt the current dynamics.
CHANCE OF BEING NEXT ON THE MOON: 1%
A Collaborative Future
Perhaps the most promising path to returning humans to the Moon lies in collaboration. A coalition of SpaceX technology, Chinese ambitions, Russian expertise, and Indian enthusiasm could pave the way for a successful lunar mission, realizing the dream of placing humans back on the Moon.